S&P PES&P 500 trailing P/E ratio (SPY). Valuation gauge — higher = more expensive.
ERPEquity Risk Premium. E/P minus 10Y real yield. Compensation for holding stocks over bonds.
VIXCBOE Volatility Index. Implied 30-day S&P 500 vol. Fear gauge.
SPY/RSPCap-weighted vs equal-weight S&P 500 ratio. Rising = mega-cap concentration.
UST 2Y2-Year Treasury yield. Proxy for Fed rate expectations.
UST 10Y10-Year Treasury yield. Benchmark for mortgages, corporate borrowing.
UST 30Y30-Year Treasury yield. Long-term growth and inflation expectations.
2s10s2Y-10Y Treasury spread. Negative = inverted curve, historically signals recession.
10Y Real10Y TIPS yield. Real cost of capital — key equity valuation input.
DXYUS Dollar Index. Trade-weighted basket vs 6 major currencies.
USDJPYDollar/Yen. Carry trade proxy — JPY strength signals risk-off.
GoldGold futures (GC). Inflation/chaos hedge.
CrudeWTI crude oil (CL). Growth proxy and inflation input.
Nat GasHenry Hub natural gas (NG). Energy costs, weather-sensitive.
CopperCopper futures (HG). Industrial demand proxy — "Dr. Copper".
BTCBitcoin (USD). Crypto risk proxy, liquidity-sensitive.
ETHEthereum (USD). Smart-contract ecosystem value.
HY OASHigh-yield bond option-adjusted spread over Treasuries. Credit stress barometer.
IG OASInvestment-grade bond spread. Broad corporate credit conditions.
C&I YoYCommercial & Industrial loans, year-over-year growth. Bank lending impulse.
UMichUniversity of Michigan Consumer Sentiment. Leads spending by 2-3 months.
SKEWCBOE SKEW Index. Tail risk pricing — higher = more demand for downside protection.
MOVEMerrill Lynch bond volatility index. Rate uncertainty gauge.
StressCross-asset stress count (0-3). HY OAS + VIX + DXY each >p75 of trailing 1yr.
Net LiqNet Liquidity = Fed Balance Sheet - TGA - Reverse Repo. Market plumbing.
NFCIChicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index. Positive = tighter than average.
ANFCIAdjusted NFCI. Isolates financial conditions from business cycle.
ClaimsInitial jobless claims (weekly). Labor market real-time pulse.
5Y BE5-Year breakeven inflation rate. Market-implied inflation expectations.
SOFRSecured Overnight Financing Rate. Benchmark repo rate.
EFFREffective Federal Funds Rate. Interbank lending rate.
SOFR-EFFRSOFR minus EFFR spread (bps). >10bps signals repo market stress.
Swap LinesFed central bank swap line usage. >$5B = dollar funding stress abroad.
ReservesBank reserves at the Fed. <$3T = approaching scarcity.
UST 3M3-Month Treasury bill rate. Short-end funding benchmark.
SRFStanding Repo Facility usage. Elevated = banks tapping backstop.
ACM TP10Adrian-Crump-Moench 10Y term premium. Compensation for duration risk.
10Y B/C10-Year Treasury auction bid-to-cover ratio. <2.2 = weak demand.
10Y Indirect10Y auction indirect bidder %. <60% = foreign demand pullback.
T-bill %T-bill share of total marketable debt. TBAC target: 15-20%.
Dealer NetPrimary dealer net Treasury positions. Rising = supply absorption stress.
Liq StressComposite liquidity stress score (0-100). Weighted: SOFR-EFFR, reserves, RRP, TGA, NFCI, credit.
Notable Moves