Macro Digest

	Value	1W	1M	%ile	Signal
S&P PE	26.0x	-2.0%	-6.3%	p94	Expensive
ERP	-0.40%	+11bp	+7bp	p17	Neutral
VIX	26.02	+10.7%	+36.3%	p85	Stress-Up
SPY/RSP	3.42x	-0.4%	+1.4%	p98	Tightening

	Value	1W	1M	%ile	Signal
UST 2Y	3.79%	+6bp	+32bp	p39	Trend-Up
UST 10Y	4.25%	-3bp	+17bp	p38	Trend-Down
UST 30Y	4.83%	-7bp	+13bp	p40	Trend-Down
2s10s	0.46%	-9bp	-15bp	p37	Flattening
10Y Real	1.88%	-4bp	+8bp	p76	Neutral

	Value	1W	1M	%ile	Signal
DXY	99.14	-0.5%	+1.4%	p66	Trend-Down
Gold	$4,388.40	-12.4%	-13.3%	p99	Trend-Down
Crude	$88.79	-6.0%	+33.7%	p81	Risk-On
Nat Gas	$2.90	-4.6%	-4.9%	p29	Trend-Down
Copper	$5.48	-6.1%	-6.0%	p99	Risk-On
USDJPY	158.43	-0.4%	+2.1%	p100	JPY-Strong

	Value	1W	1M	%ile	Signal
BTC	$70,597	-5.6%	+3.3%	p89	Risk-On
ETH	$2,152	-9.0%	+9.1%	p64	Trend-Down

	Value	1W	1M	%ile	Signal
HY OAS	3.24%	-4bp	+36bp	p17	Stress-Down
IG OAS	0.88%	-5bp	+10bp	p11	Easing
C&I YoY	+4.4%	—	—	p34	Neutral

	Value	1W	1M	%ile	Signal
UMich	56.4	+0.0	+0.0	p2	Pessimistic
SKEW	139	-1.7%	-4.4%	p89	Expensive
MOVE	108.84	+14.2%	—	p78	Neutral
Stress	2/3	+0	—	p45	STRESS

	Value	1W	1M	%ile	Signal
5Y BE	2.63%	+5bp	+20bp	p93	Heating
Claims	205k	-8k	-1k	p1	Heating
NFCI	-0.49	-5.4%	-8.9%	p45	Trend-Up
ANFCI	-0.47	+0.0	+0.1	p43	Neutral
Net Liq	$5.80T	-5B	+102B	p80	Flush

S&P PES&P 500 trailing P/E ratio (SPY). Valuation gauge — higher = more expensive.

ERPEquity Risk Premium. E/P minus 10Y real yield. Compensation for holding stocks over bonds.

VIXCBOE Volatility Index. Implied 30-day S&P 500 vol. Fear gauge.

SPY/RSPCap-weighted vs equal-weight S&P 500 ratio. Rising = mega-cap concentration.

UST 2Y2-Year Treasury yield. Proxy for Fed rate expectations.

UST 10Y10-Year Treasury yield. Benchmark for mortgages, corporate borrowing.

UST 30Y30-Year Treasury yield. Long-term growth and inflation expectations.

2s10s2Y-10Y Treasury spread. Negative = inverted curve, historically signals recession.

10Y Real10Y TIPS yield. Real cost of capital — key equity valuation input.

DXYUS Dollar Index. Trade-weighted basket vs 6 major currencies.

USDJPYDollar/Yen. Carry trade proxy — JPY strength signals risk-off.

GoldGold futures (GC). Inflation/chaos hedge.

CrudeWTI crude oil (CL). Growth proxy and inflation input.

Nat GasHenry Hub natural gas (NG). Energy costs, weather-sensitive.

CopperCopper futures (HG). Industrial demand proxy — "Dr. Copper".

BTCBitcoin (USD). Crypto risk proxy, liquidity-sensitive.

ETHEthereum (USD). Smart-contract ecosystem value.

HY OASHigh-yield bond option-adjusted spread over Treasuries. Credit stress barometer.

IG OASInvestment-grade bond spread. Broad corporate credit conditions.

C&I YoYCommercial & Industrial loans, year-over-year growth. Bank lending impulse.

UMichUniversity of Michigan Consumer Sentiment. Leads spending by 2-3 months.

SKEWCBOE SKEW Index. Tail risk pricing — higher = more demand for downside protection.

MOVEMerrill Lynch bond volatility index. Rate uncertainty gauge.

StressCross-asset stress count (0-3). HY OAS + VIX + DXY each >p75 of trailing 1yr.

Net LiqNet Liquidity = Fed Balance Sheet - TGA - Reverse Repo. Market plumbing.

NFCIChicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index. Positive = tighter than average.

ANFCIAdjusted NFCI. Isolates financial conditions from business cycle.

ClaimsInitial jobless claims (weekly). Labor market real-time pulse.

5Y BE5-Year breakeven inflation rate. Market-implied inflation expectations.